20200513

Wed May 13 06:00:02 EDT 2020 ======================================== Slept from ten-thirty to six-thirty. Sunny. Highs around 60. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Work ---------------------------------------- - Ask Entrta what info residents will need to portal sign-up (since we only have birth dates for 60% of our residents) Done. - 2 PM Entrata SIM webinar (self-initiated migration) Done. Thirty-minute walk at lunch. Saw a morning dove and two blue jays. Home ---------------------------------------- - Play with Go TUI library? Vacuumed. The last couple days, there have been fewer cars in the parking lot. People seem to be going out more. 😟 https://paulgorman.org/diary/20200411.html https://github.com/rivo/tview https://sarkos.tumblr.com/post/617833158091718656/tenaflyviper-cheetohface-pam-grier-the > While Roger Corman was shooting this film [The Arena (1974)] at Cinecittà Studios in Rome, Federico Fellini was simultaneously shooting his own film, Amarcord, on an adjacent set. > During a take, Grier lost control of the horse she was on, and the horse ended up charging through the back of one set, and into another: Fellini’s set. > Right in the middle of a take comes Pam Grier with an afro, dressed in skimpy fake leopard skins, atop this massive black horse. > Fellini took one look at her and exclaimed, > “Ah! My fantasy has come true!” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/movies/mad-max-fury-road-oral-history.html https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them > Workplaces: Another great example is the outbreak in a call center (see below). A single infected employee came to work on the 11th floor of a building. That floor had 216 employees. Over the period of a week, 94 of those people became infected (43.5%: the blue chairs). 92 of those 94 people became sick (only 2 remained asymptomatic). Notice how one side of the office is primarily infected, while there are very few people infected on the other side. While exact number of people infected by respiratory droplets / respiratory exposure versus fomite transmission (door handles, shared water coolers, elevator buttons etc.) is unknown. It serves to highlight that being in an enclosed space, sharing the same air for a prolonged period increases your chances of exposure and infection. Another 3 people on other floors of the building were infected, but the authors were not able to trace the infection to the primary cluster on the 11th floor. Interestingly, even though there were considerable interaction between workers on different floors of the building in elevators and the lobby, the outbreak was mostly limited to a single floor (ref). This highlights the importance of exposure and time in the spreading of SARS-CoV2. > Indoor spaces, with limited air exchange or recycled air and lots of people, are concerning from a transmission standpoint. We know that 60 people in a volleyball court-sized room (choir) results in massive infections. Same situation with the restaurant and the call center. Social distancing guidelines don't hold in indoor spaces where you spend a lot of time, as people on the opposite side of the room were infected. > The principle is viral exposure over an extended period of time. In all these cases, people were exposed to the virus in the air for a prolonged period (hours). Even if they were 50 feet away (choir or call center), even a low dose of the virus in the air reaching them, over a sustained period, was enough to cause infection and in some cases, death. > Social distancing rules are really to protect you with brief exposures or outdoor exposures. In these situations there is not enough time to achieve the infectious viral load when you are standing 6 feet apart or where wind and the infinite outdoor space for viral dilution reduces viral load. The effects of sunlight, heat, and humidity on viral survival, all serve to minimize the risk to everyone when outside. US new tests (We want at least 500,000–5,000,000 tests per day.): 230,442 → 220,522 → 305,118 → 253,431 → 248,125 → 231,812 → 259,150 → 215,443 → 318,720 → 303,275 → 300,842 → 277,894 → 394,711 → 306,581 → 336,392 (today) (three-day averages: 252027 244456 264438 294004 345895) US new deaths: 2700 → 2041 → 1793 → 1651 → 1158 → 938 → 2527 → 1949 → 2746 → 1760 → 1529 → 979 → 837 → 1510 → 1726 (today) (three-day averages: 2178 1249 2407 1423 1358) MI new tests today (How many tests do we want? 42,000 per day, maybe.): 7547 → 7915 → 10238 → 11204 → 10823 → 9661 → 643 → 10395 → 13,831 → 13,191 → 13,233 → 12192 → 13,270 → 8942 → 370 (today) (three-day averages: 8567 10563 8290 12872 7527) MI new tests positive percentage (We want 10% or less.): 15% → 12% → 10% → 8% → 5% → 2% → 70% → 6% → 4% → 5% → 3% → 3% → 2% → 6% → 100% (today) (three-day averages: 12 5 27 4 36) MI new deaths: 103 → 119 → 77 → 154 → 29 → 86 → 130 → 71 → 93 → 50 → 133 → 25 → 33 → 90 → 40 (today) (three-day averages: 100 90 98 69 54) Oakland county new deaths: 8 → 17 → 11 → 15 → 6 → 12 → 7 → 7 → 15 → 9 → 4 → 5 → 6 → 5 → 1 (today) (three-day averages: 12 11 10 6 4) Beaumont 4/23: COVID-19 patients: 701; COVID-19 ICU patients: 174; all patients bed occupancy: 57% Beaumont 4/27: COVID-19 patients: 613; COVID-19 ICU patients: 237; all patients bed occupancy: 66% Beaumont 4/30: COVID-19 patients: 559; COVID-19 ICU patients: 248; all patients bed occupancy: 71% Beaumont 5/04: COVID-19 patients: 449; COVID-19 ICU patients: 226; all patients bed occupancy: 70% Beaumont 5/07: COVID-19 patients: 408; COVID-19 ICU patients: 202; all patients bed occupancy: 72% Beaumont 5/11: COVID-19 patients: 322; COVID-19 ICU patients: 185; all patients bed occupancy: 70% Servings: grains 2/6, fruit 2/4, vegetables 2/4, dairy 2/2, meat 2/3, nuts 0/0.5 Brunch: egg and tomato wrap, banana, coffee Lunch: avocado and salami wrap Afternoon snack: Mandarin Dinner: -32 126/77

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