paulgorman.org

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Tue May 12 06:00:01 EDT 2020 ======================================== Slept from eleven to seven. Not as cool. Sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. West winds 5 to 15 mph. Work ---------------------------------------- - Respond to Lori's litany Done. - 11 AM discuss validation plan Done. - Arrange delivery for FL router Done. - Patch Tuesday Done, for the moment. - Follow up on Village Squire phones Done. - Send Heidi office access logs Done. - Review invoices A little. Thirty-minute walk at lunch. Sunny, blue sky. Warmer. Saw a pair of robins and a pair of deer. And a woodpecker. Bob and Julie are both in the office again. Home ---------------------------------------- Fifteen-minute walk after work. Saw a crow, saw and heard a morning dove. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23143224 New Abbott SARS-CoV-2 antibody test has 99.90% specificity and 100% sensitivity https://forward.ny.gov/regional-monitoring-dashboard - 14-day decline in hospitalizations - 14-day decline in deaths (or < 5 deaths) - ≥ 30% available hospital beds — Diagnostic Testing Capacity. Average daily diagnostic testing over the past 7 days must be sufficient to conduct 30 tests per 1,000 residents per month. NY wants weekly tests equal to 3% of it's population, if I'm interpreting that right. Michigan's population is about 10MM. 10000000/1000*30/7 So, by that standard, we'd want 42,857 tests per day in Michigan. US new tests (We want at least 500,000–5,000,000 tests per day.): 202,233 → 230,442 → 220,522 → 305,118 → 253,431 → 248,125 → 231,812 → 259,150 → 215,443 → 318,720 → 303,275 → 300,842 → 277,894 → 394,711 → 306,581 (today) (three-day averages: 217732 268891 235468 307612 326395) US new deaths: 2198 → 2700 → 2041 → 1793 → 1651 → 1158 → 938 → 2527 → 1949 → 2746 → 1760 → 1529 → 979 → 837 → 1510 (today) (three-day averages: 2313 1534 1805 2012 1109) MI new tests today (How many tests do we want? 42,000 per day, maybe.): 7045 → 7547 → 7915 → 10238 → 11204 → 10823 → 9661 → 643 → 10395 → 13,831 → 13,191 → 13,233 → 12192 → 13,270 → 8942 (today) (three-day averages: 7502 10755 6900 13418 11468) MI new tests positive percentage (We want 10% or less.): 15% → 15% → 12% → 10% → 8% → 5% → 2% → 70% → 6% → 4% → 5% → 3% → 3% → 2% → 6% (today) (three-day averages: 14 8 26 4 4) MI new deaths: 160 → 103 → 119 → 77 → 154 → 29 → 86 → 130 → 71 → 93 → 50 → 133 → 25 → 33 → 90 (today) (three-day averages: 127 87 96 92 49) Oakland county new deaths: 13 → 8 → 17 → 11 → 15 → 6 → 12 → 7 → 7 → 15 → 9 → 4 → 5 → 6 → 3 (today) (three-day averages: 9 11 9 9 5) Beaumont 4/23: COVID-19 patients: 701; COVID-19 ICU patients: 174; all patients bed occupancy: 57% Beaumont 4/27: COVID-19 patients: 613; COVID-19 ICU patients: 237; all patients bed occupancy: 66% Beaumont 4/30: COVID-19 patients: 559; COVID-19 ICU patients: 248; all patients bed occupancy: 71% Beaumont 5/04: COVID-19 patients: 449; COVID-19 ICU patients: 226; all patients bed occupancy: 70% Beaumont 5/07: COVID-19 patients: 408; COVID-19 ICU patients: 202; all patients bed occupancy: 72% Beaumont 5/11: COVID-19 patients: 322; COVID-19 ICU patients: 185; all patients bed occupancy: 70% Servings: grains 6/6, fruit 1/4, vegetables 2/4, dairy 2/2, meat 3/3, nuts 0/0.5 Brunch: banana, tomatoes, egg and cheese wrap, coffee Lunch: avocado and salami wrap Dinner: Cheetos, ramen -33 116/70

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