20200511

Mon May 11 06:00:01 EDT 2020 ======================================== Slept from ten-thirty to seven. Cooler. Cloudy until late afternoon then becoming partly sunny. Chance of flurries and slight chance of rain showers in the morning, then slight chance of rain showers and snow showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Work ---------------------------------------- - 2 PM Fifth Third call Done. - 3:30 PM Skype call Done. - Prepare router for FL Done. - Review invoices No. Twenty-minute walk at lunch. Overcast and cool. Saw a blue jay. Home ---------------------------------------- - Laundry Done. - Empty mailbox Done. - Drive car Done. Received a shipment of not-the-worst-but-not-the-best toilet paper from Amazon. Drove around for a half-hour after work. Weather went from cool to cold. Texted Kate. Exchanged a few messages with Ed and Jay. https://kottke.org/20/05/a-practical-guide-to-covid-19-risks-and-how-to-avoid-them > It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That’s what’s going to happen with a lockdown. > As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I’ve said before, if you don’t solve the biology, the economy won’t recover. > A single breath releases 50-5000 droplets. Most of these droplets are low velocity and fall to the ground quickly. There are even fewer droplets released through nose-breathing. Importantly, due to the lack of exhalation force with a breath, viral particles from the lower respiratory areas are not expelled. > Speaking increases the release of respiratory droplets about 10 fold; ~200 copies of virus per minute. Again, assuming every virus is inhaled, it would take ~5 minutes of speaking face-to-face to receive the required dose. > The reason to highlight these different outbreaks is to show you the commonality of outbreaks of COVID-19. All these infection events were indoors, with people closely-spaced, with lots of talking, singing, or yelling. The main sources for infection are home, workplace, public transport, social gatherings, and restaurants. This accounts for 90% of all transmission events. In contrast, outbreaks spread from shopping appear to be responsible for a small percentage of traced infections. > Indoor spaces, with limited air exchange or recycled air and lots of people, are concerning from a transmission standpoint. We know that 60 people in a volleyball court-sized room (choir) results in massive infections. Same situation with the restaurant and the call center. Social distancing guidelines don't hold in indoor spaces where you spend a lot of time, as people on the opposite side of the room were infected. > The principle is viral exposure over an extended period of time. In all these cases, people were exposed to the virus in the air for a prolonged period (hours). Even if they were 50 feet away (choir or call center), even a low dose of the virus in the air reaching them, over a sustained period, was enough to cause infection and in some cases, death. Grocery trips are not that bad, but sitting in your office all day, occasionally talking to people, is much riskier. https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/may-11-coronavirus-roundup-symptoms-therapies-and-policy-confusion/ > The plan relies on extensive testing, something the US has fallen well short of achieving. But last week, President Trump indicated he's OK with low levels of testing, saying, "So the media likes to say we have the most cases, but we do, by far, the most testing. If we did very little testing, we wouldn’t have the most cases. So, in a way, by doing all of this testing, we make ourselves look bad." Trump's comments are consistent with a New York Times report that indicates downplaying the number of infections has become a strategic political strategy meant to boost the election chances of those who have made comments that minimized the pandemic, including Trump himself. Big jump in US testing today. Michigan finally has two weeks of declining deaths. US new tests (We want at least 500,000–5,000,000 tests per day.): 190,443 → 202,233 → 230,442 → 220,522 → 305,118 → 253,431 → 248,125 → 231,812 → 259,150 → 215,443 → 318,720 → 303,275 → 300,842 → 277,894 → 394,711 (today) (three-day averages: 207706 259690 246362 279146 324482) US new deaths: 1163 → 2198 → 2700 → 2041 → 1793 → 1651 → 1158 → 938 → 2527 → 1949 → 2746 → 1760 → 1529 → 979 → 837 (today) (three-day averages: 2020 1828 1541 2152 1115) MI new tests today (How many do we want? Michigan's population is about 10,000,000. Whitmer threw out 10% — 1MM!?): 6754 → 7045 → 7547 → 7915 → 10238 → 11204 → 10823 → 9661 → 643 → 10395 → 13,831 → 13,191 → 13,233 → 12192 → 13,270 (today) (three-day averages: 7115 9786 7042 12472 12898) MI new tests positive percentage (We want 10% or less.): 6% → 15% → 15% → 12% → 10% → 8% → 5% → 2% → 70% → 6% → 4% → 5% → 3% → 3% → 2% (today) (three-day averages: 12 10 26 5 3) MI new deaths: 92 → 160 → 103 → 119 → 77 → 154 → 29 → 86 → 130 → 71 → 93 → 50 → 133 → 25 → 33 (today) (three-day averages: 118 117 82 71 54) Oakland county new deaths: 10 → 13 → 8 → 17 → 12 → 14 → 6 → 13 → 6 → 7 → 13 → 8 → 4 → 5 → 2 (today) (three-day averages: 10 14 8 9 4) Beaumont 4/23: COVID-19 patients: 701; COVID-19 ICU patients: 174; all patients bed occupancy: 57% Beaumont 4/27: COVID-19 patients: 613; COVID-19 ICU patients: 237; all patients bed occupancy: 66% Beaumont 4/30: COVID-19 patients: 559; COVID-19 ICU patients: 248; all patients bed occupancy: 71% Beaumont 5/04: COVID-19 patients: 449; COVID-19 ICU patients: 226; all patients bed occupancy: 70% Beaumont 5/07: COVID-19 patients: 408; COVID-19 ICU patients: 202; all patients bed occupancy: 72% Beaumont 5/11: COVID-19 patients: 322; COVID-19 ICU patients: 185; all patients bed occupancy: 70% Servings: grains 7/6, fruit 1/4, vegetables 1/4, dairy 2/2, meat 2/3, nuts 0/0.5 Brunch: banana, egg and cheese wrap, coffee Lunch: cookies, tomato and cheese wrap Dinner: ramen, Doritos -30 126/72

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