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Sun May 3 06:00:01 EDT 2020
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Slept from midnight to seven.
Sunny.
Highs in the lower 70s.
Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph shifting to the west 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Started watching the second season of House of Cards.
Feeling a bit low.
Listened to more of The Sign of the Four audiobook.
Paced around my baloney for a bit in the evening.
Saw a pair of morning doves.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-confusing-uncertainty/610819/
> This explains why some of the most important stats about the coronavirus have been hard to pin down. Estimates of its case-fatality rate (CFR)—the proportion of diagnosed people who die—have ranged from 0.1 to 15 percent. It’s frustrating to not have a firm number, but also unrealistic to expect one. “Folks are talking about CFR as this unchangeable quantity, and that is not how it works,” says Maia Majumder, an epidemiologist at Harvard Medical School and Boston Children’s Hospital.
> The CFR’s denominator—total cases—depends on how thoroughly a country tests its population. Its numerator—total deaths—depends on the spread of ages within that population, the prevalence of preexisting illnesses, how far people live from hospitals, and how well staffed or well equipped those hospitals are. These factors vary among countries, states, and cities, and the CFR will, too.
Chatted with Jay and Ed on Jitsi for a while.
Michigan continues to get faintly better.
The US is maybe leveling off.
Oakland county continues to trend clearly better.
US new tests (We want at least 500,000–5,000,000 tests per day.):
168,751 → 149,108 → 149,831 → 315,927 → 192,012 → 232,225 → 271,256 → 206,403 → 190,443 → 202,233 → 230,442 → 220,522 → 305,118 → 264,537 → 237,019 (today)
(three-day averages: 155897 246721 222701 217732 268891)
US new deaths:
1654 → 1528 → 2674 → 2133 → 1886 → 1772 → 2194 → 1184 → 1163 → 2198 → 2700 → 2041 → 1793 → 1651 → 1158 (today)
(three-day averages: 1952 1930 1514 2313 1534)
MI new tests today (How many do we want? Michigan's population is about 10,000,000. Whitmer threw out 10% — 1MM!?):
9934 → 4137 → 3428 → 999 → 10096 → 7975 → 7748 → 6962 → 6754 → 7045 → 7547 → 7915 → 10238 → 11204 → 10823 (today)
(three-day averages: 5833 6357 7155 7502 10755)
MI new tests positive percentage (We want 10% or less.):
6% → 14% → 28% → 100% → 13% → 17% → 7% → 8% → 6% → 15% → 15% → 12% → 10% → 8% → 5% (today)
(three-day averages: 16 43 7 14 8)
MI new deaths:
83 → 77 → 232 → 113 → 164 → 108 → 189 → 41 → 92 → 160 → 103 → 119 → 77 → 154 → 29 (today)
(three-day averages: 131 128 107 127 87)
Oakland county new deaths:
28 → 12 → 20 → 26 → 12 → 19 → 13 → 15 → 9 → 12 → 5 → 12 → 4 → 3 → 1 (today)
(three-day averages: 20 19 12 10 3)
Beaumont 4/23: COVID-19 patients: 701; COVID-19 ICU patients: 174; all patients bed occupancy: 57%
Beaumont 4/27: COVID-19 patients: 613; COVID-19 ICU patients: 237; all patients bed occupancy: 66%
Beaumont 4/30: COVID-19 patients: 559; COVID-19 ICU patients: 248; all patients bed occupancy: 71%
Servings: grains 4/6, fruit 0/4, vegetables 1/4, dairy 2/2, meat 3/3, nuts 0/0.5
Brunch: left-over spaghetti
Lunch: cookies, carrots
Afternoon snack: popcorn
Dinner: omelet, cookie
-31
119/73
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